Wednesday, March 14, 2007

By the Numbers

I've run the numbers for the Bruins chances to make the playoffs with 13 games left:

Projecting to the end of the season based on present performance starting at 7th place:

93 NYI
90 CAR
90 TOR
89 NYR
88 MON
84 BOS
83 FLA

If nothing changes the Bruins will finish 12th. So is it too late for the Bruins? Ignoring the likelyhood of playing well for the moment, is it even possible for them to make the playoffs? The answer is yes. The 8th playoff spot can likely be had with 91 points, which would mean the Bruins would have to pick up 20 points in the remaining 13 games. That works out to going 10-3. And how likely is that given their record this year? The Bruins went 10-3 during a stretch in November/December so
it really is possible, although I'll leave how likely it is up to the reader. The key thing to look for from the Bruins in the closing 13 game stretch is 3 losses. If they lose more than 3 games it is unlikely they will make the 8th spot.

There are two other factors I haven't considered here: the play of the other teams in the hunt and the fact that the Bruins are going to play two of the teams in front of them, something which can work very much for or against them depending on the outcome. The Bruins play the Canadians three times and the Rangers twice. That's five key games, of which they need to win at least three. Taking both games against New York would all but guarantee passing them, assuming the Bruins do reasonably well in their other games. I've heard it said that for the Bruins to make the playoffs other teams would have to do poorly, but that's not yet the case. Their future is still in their hands.

There is no question in my mind that the Bruins have the talent to win these games to make the playoffs, and even upset Buffalo in the first round. We've seen flashes of a great team all season long, but only here and there. We've basically been waiting for them to get their act together from the beginning. If they finally do it, they can do great things. Otherwise it'll be an early tee time.


neb said...

too inconsistant too late.... i think because of three point games and the other teams playing each other, they have little shot even if they run the table... welcome to blogging! nice job keep up the optomism, ill play skeptic!

neb said...

ill ask for the gang... shall we link you from our page?

neb said...

well maybe not if they run the table..... but like you say 1-3 losses and they are cooked!

neb said...

the old quadruple post to start your blogging career! couldnt resist ;)

number4bobbyorr said...

Hey neb, thanks for stopping by. I'd be honored to have a link!

TreeBob said...

you will be linked later today!

Lenka said...

Good for people to know.